There are various political forecasts in British media regarding upcoming elections in the UK but they all agree that this time the outcome is utterly unpredictable. Or is it?
First past the post is an old electoral model by which a representative with the highest number of votes from each of 650 UK constituencies will become a member of House of Commons. In theory, it implies a possibility of a party with the highest vote rate at national level being exempt from the parliament for not having won any constituency seats. This scenario, of course, never happens to that extreme but the old electoral model does dilute a popular vote for the parties that have limited financial and structural powers to support their cause throughout the wide national campaign.
Therefore, the two major contestants are Labours and Tories but neither can win a clear majority for the coming term. That brings us to the notion of a hung parliament and the new reality of relatively small parties emerging from obscurity to play an important role by stepping into coalitions to form the (new) government. This government, logically, will not be the most efficient one due to the apparent lack of any easily achieved consensus in a hung parliament.
My problem, if I were a voter, which, as a stateless person I don’t qualify for, would be to distinguish between the parties and their intentions. My old preference for the Labour is based on an ideological background of a party that, in the meantime, sold its socialist soul to the private sector when last time in number 10.
“But Ed is different, he’s not a Blairist” – people say and I want to believe these voices but unfortunately I don’t see it that way. I think they all are Blairists as they all represent first and only a corporative management of one kind or another.
Business as usual
Business as usual, that’s the dominant ideology on the island so I don’t see any changes here. If Labour were to win the election and form the government with Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP which could potentially take up to 40 seats in the House of Commons, just enough to give Labour a needed majority, it would still not mean much; neither EU nor NHS could be given guaranties of the survival whoever is to win.
Radical social and political changes that will spread throughout EU zone from its southern margins, will be turning the political structure on the continent upside down. The future of Europe is inevitably a socialist one, but this future will never reach Britain whose unwillingness to change remains unchallenged.
Of course I’m being cynical as I want Labour as a lesser evil in my life from what would it be a Conservative led coalition.
In an ideal world of today, it would have to be Green Party winning the elections in a week time, but this is the dairy of madness so the future looks more orange then green.
If you still hope for the better after the election, then you will soon be disillusioned.