With a solid majority of 55.7% of the votes, the representative of extreme populism in South America, Javier Milei (1970), an economist nicknamed "the madman", won against the candidate of Peronism, Kirchnerism and "Christina-ism", Sergio Massa. The Minister of Economy only reached 44.3% of the votes in the ballot held on November 19. With the so-called Libertarian Party, formed in 2018, Milei jumped to deputy the following year and promoted the coalition "La Libertad Avanza". This led him to obtain the republic’s presidency thanks to the votes transferred by the traditional right, headed by former President, Mauricio Macri.

What can Argentina expect from a president who has promised the following measures?

Dollarizing the economy, eliminating the central bank along with 10 ministries, reducing social aid, privatizing pensions, reducing the State to its minimum expression, militarizing the police, facilitating the acquisition of weapons by individuals, prohibiting abortion, and authorizing the free sale of organs among many others. In addition, he denies climate change and has insulted Pope Francis, accusing him of being not only a leftist but also an "imbecile and representative of the evil one".

Regarding the human rights violations that occurred during the years of the Argentine military dictatorship, he is a denialist who minimizes the deaths and disappearances. Furthermore, he admires Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, the former Brazilian and American presidents respectively, along with the ultra-liberal economic model of Chile, where he maintains close affinity with the most conservative sectors of the Chilean right.

How then to explain Milei's triumph?

The answer is not simple and is the result of the "Peronist doctrine" initiated in the 40s of the last century, which developed a welfare state based on the agricultural exporting wealth of grains, leather, and meat, among others. This coincided with the shortages caused by the Second World War; therefore, the immense resources received were channelled to protect the dispossessed sectors. The mythical image of Evita Perón, his wife, was added to the welfare system. In one way or another, the governments have maintained, with more or less strength, this welfare system and the growth of the state apparatus, which today reaches 18 jobs out of every 100, a very high figure by OECD standards, which gives 13 to Mexico, 12 to Chile and 11 to Germany.

The Argentine economy has been characterized by high public spending and indebtedness, reaching over 80% of GDP. Moreover, inflation is predicted to reach nearly 150% in December, while 40% of the population is below the poverty line. Therefore, it is difficult to understand that the candidate of the ruling party has been the Minister of Economy, but Argentina is like that.

Since the return of democracy in 1983, inflation and public debt have followed. Between 1983 and 1987, the average hyperinflation reached 747.25% and President Raúl Alfonsín resigned five months before the end of his term. The same happened with President Fernando de la Rúa, who former President Carlos Menem gave a dollarized economy. De la Rúa governed for two years, until 2001, when he had to resign amid a crisis that left dozens of people dead and looted. In just one year, Argentina had five presidents until the Peronism led by Néstor Kirchner took over in 2003.

Milei has already stated that before taking office as President, on December 10, he will travel to Israel and the United States, making his preferences clear. Argentina's foreign policy will have to face the challenges of neighbouring Brazil and the challenges of MERCOSUR in its 25-year negotiation with the European Union. The region could suffer if there is a radical change in agreements and trade policy. Regarding President Lula da Silva, Milei has called him "communist and corrupt", so it is unlikely that the Brazilian president will attend the inauguration ceremony, which is a tradition in South America.

The result of the Argentinean elections will impact neighbouring Chile, where next December 17 a referendum will be held to accept or reject a new Constitution drafted by a conservative majority and has divided the country. Once again, citizens are debating the proposed constitutional text, which seeks to perpetuate the prevailing neoliberal model and backs down on women's rights and values, maintaining the individual scheme in matters of education, health, and pensions, among others, as well as the private ownership of water. The proposed text has aligned the entire right and centre-right in defence of a model that, although it has generated growth, has generated a high concentration of wealth that translates into the richest 1% having 33% of the GDP.

The peaceful mass demonstrations of 2019 were against the economic model maintained in Chile generating frustration. Milei's triumph has set off the alarms of the left and centre-left forces that have called to reject the constitutional proposal. Polls so far indicate that a majority is in that position. Still, many things can happen until December 17, especially due to the mobilization of resources and means available to the conservative forces. President Gabriel Boric has already communicated that whatever the result of the referendum on December 17, the constitutional discussion will be closed until the end of his government.